Winter Weather Imminent - Yet Another Perspective from Texas

As I write this, it’s a little after 8pm. The sun set a couple of hours ago, and the temperature has dipped down to 22 degrees Fahrenheit. The “feels like” temperature is down to 10. The National Weather Service has issued an Ice Storm Warning until 12pm tomorrow (Sunday), as well as an Extreme Cold Warning (until 12pm on Monday) and an Airport Weather Warning. Suffice it to say, we’ve been warned. The potential impacts include slick roads and possible weather-related power outages and tree damage. Light freezing rain is in the forecast, predicted to start in the next 15 minutes and continuing overnight and into the morning.

Inside my house, soup simmers on the stove and my boyfriend is playing video games while my cat is curled up on his favorite perch of his tree, presiding over our cozy (for now) living room. Earlier today we went out for a walk, and though the air was crisp and a cold wind was blowing, the puddles on the street were still decidedly wet. It was eerie out there - a Saturday in Austin, but barely anybody was out and about. We saw few cars and fewer pedestrians. A couple of people braved the cold to squeeze in a last minute dog walk or to grab a cup of coffee, but the streets were generally still and silent.

There’s a sort of anxious energy in the city, and among my friends. Most of us were here for the winter storm in 2021, and for the freeze in 2022. Last May hail and wind took out my power for nearly 24 hours. People are wondering if they’ll lose power, and if so, for how long. Some of it is framed as a joke - at a happy hour I yesterday, a friend joked that he hadn’t been concerned about the storm until he learned that Senator Ted Cruz had been spotting flying out of Austin. But there is a real fear that has lingered in the back of many people’s heads for the last few years, waiting for another inevitable disaster.

As someone who has spent the last four or five years studyingdifferent aspects of the power system, I feel confident that this winter storm will impact Texans across the state. However, I don’t think it’ll be like Urie. I think that there’s enough new capacity, energy storage, and winterization to get us through the (relative to Urie) brief period where temperatures stay below freezing. Instead, I think the issue will be the distribution system. A lot of the state is forecasted to be pelted with freezing rain and sleet, which pose serious threats to overhead distribution and transmission lines. This isn’t breaking news or a unique insight - in fact, the city of Austin is well aware of this risk. After the impacts of an ice storm in 2023, Austin Energy, the municipal utility, hired external consultants to study the feasibility of burying and/or hardening overhead power lines. The undergrounding feasibility study was completed in March of 2025, and concluded that only 120 miles of Austin Energy’s 5000 miles of electric distribution lines “may have benefits that exceed the cost of undergrounding”.

Instead, the consultant recommended that Austin Energy integrate the study results into a broader reliability and resilience strategy. This plan, formally known as the Electric System Resiliency Plan (ESRP), was announced in December of 2025. The initiatives in the plan include circuit hardening, vegetation management, and advanced grid infrastructure that will enable operational resilience measures. This sounds promising, but the exact impacts are unclear. Besides, the program is launching this year, meaning that no significant changes appear to have been made since the ice storms of 2023.

As I walked through Austin’s Hyde Park neighborhood this afternoon, I saw tree branches intertwined with power lines along most blocks. According to the ESRP, 58% of the distribution system is underground. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, as the freezing rain falls and the cold temperatures settle in, we’ll see how things unfold. Hopefully, nothing comes of all of this, and we all wake up tomorrow with our heat on. We can look outside at the icy branches and roads, and enjoy the break from 70-degree temperatures. That’s what I’ll be hoping for!

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